Flashpoint Arctic:How climate change will compel a future war between the United States and Russia Part 4

The World by 2040

By 2020 the United States is the predominant global force despite the efforts of Russia and China. In 2020, the earth is warming at 1.15°C but is very likely to be 3°-3.5°C by 2040 because the Arctic is currently heating at least at twice that rate already. Predictions made in 2010 by scholars for 2040 foresee the Arctic to be sea-ice free with no possibility for war.[1] The polar bear, walrus, and whale will be nearly extinct with an increase in human activity. And war will come.

World consumption has quadrupled since 1970 but the population only doubled, and with annual material consumption establishing new records of 100 billion tons, securing resources is critical.[2] Global food requirements will increase by half while annual carbon emissions are expected to rise from 9 to 12 billion metric tons by 2040. [3]Population increase and prosperity will place additionally stresses on energy and raw materials to potentially triple of today’s market by 2050.[4] “There will be an increasing risk of discontinuous and systemic shocks to 2040 as a consequence of these factors and intensified resource stresses will bring new risks and uncertainties to international relations in an already turbulent world”.[5]

The greatest threat of 2040 will be the scarcity of water as global warming turns arable lands into deserts. The North Pole and South Pole along with the Himalayas, the Third Pole, will have been drastically melted resulting in greater sea levels and drastic reduction of fresh water for billions of people. Currently more than 500 glaciers have disappeared in the Third Pole.[6]

Food and water scarcities, extreme weather and floods will lead to mass migration as glacial melting and water disputes will arise in numerous parts of the world.[7] No continent or country however wealthy and powerful will be untouched. The world by 2040 will not be unrecognizable, it will however be different and inhospitable in many parts.

What then does a 3°C global warming look like? Large swaths of the earth will be uninhabitable because of desertification brought on by droughts. Rainfall will plummet in some regions and increase in others. For the United States this means the Colorado River, for example, will not be able to provide water to the tens of millions of people and agriculture depending on it as it falls to half its capacity. The Australian continent will bake under temperature increases. Extreme weather at a catastrophic Category Six will rip into the world. Water flows in Asia are impacted leading to a best-case scenario of millions of refugees. [8]

The worst-case scenario sees wars involving China, Pakistan and India. China and India may join forces against Pakistan or battle each other over resources. Russia may in fact support a war against any radical Islamist governments or non-state actors. A German army future trend report predicts a fragmented Europe.[9] Individual European countries will have to deal with large-scale migration exhausting their economies and leading to armed clashes and authoritarian governments. Mexico, Central and South America will see conflict with organized crime asserting itself, internal strife, and mass migration patterns. Australia and New Zealand are under Chinese influence with large scale influx of Chinese citizens. Africa will see an increase in organized crime and violence as its population migrates to hopeful pastures. Britain will seek to continue its special relationship with the United States but given new stress factors affecting America will see strains in the relationship as it simultaneously seeks to rebuild bonds it cut during Brexit with the European Union. Nordic and Baltic states will seek some form of neutrality vis-à-vis Russia and China.

The Russian Federation will see a growth of illegal migration and challenges along all its 16 borders. Climate change will alter its land mass as well. China will struggle with food supplies and will rely on imports. Perhaps it will have annexed Taiwan similar to Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimea. The common issues are illegal migration, lack of resources, and internal strife driven forward by an ever increasing and unpredictable changing climate.

The United States will be a society ruled by a super-wealthy oligarchy, supported by the military and high-technology complex. The rest of its citizens will be in the service industry. The southern border will see refugees while Americans will move north and into Canada fleeing extreme weather and financial destruction. The military will live in its city-bases, while highly educated technology workers live in super cities. The convergence of the military and technology, possibly with bio-engineering advances, needs to be fueled by ever decreasing raw materials.

The United States and Russia, with Chinese support, have the will to continue their duel. There will be war. What kind of war is impossible to predict.

The Coldest War (2040 – ongoing)

War according to Clausewitz is not just a duel on a larger scale but it is an act of force to impose one’s will on the adversary. It is ever evolving, a chameleon, and the outcome is never absolute. Significantly, “war is a mere continuation of policy by other means”.[10] All wars adhere to these timeless observations and that includes future wars.

Current War Theory

Current thought on future war rests on recent combat experiences primarily set in desert, mountain and urban settings. In the 1990s Marine Corps Commandant Krulak published a future war scenario called the Strategic Corporaldetailing the full spectrum and complexity of the next wars in which a corporal is tasked with transitions on the modern battlefield from humanitarian aid, to peacekeeping efforts between warring entities, and finally to a fight that turns increasingly hostile, lethal, and chaotic.[11] A war amongst the people. To this was added another task regarding psychological and information operations. The Four Block War addressed the full spectrum of modern hybrid warfighting.[12] One purveyor of hybrid warfare is Russia. Some of the ways it conducts hybrid war is by using information operations, proxy forces, political-economic influence, clandestine operation by its special operations forces, and traditional espionage.[13] Today’s hybrid wars are reliant on technology, are data driven, and do not use conventional forces. This, according to Rupert Smith, is due to parallel conflicts of the Cold War that exhibited new trends. It was, he argues, an end of the ‘Great Confrontation’ and a new paradigm emerged in 1991and became dominant where industrial armies became effectively obsolete.[14] The world’s most widely used tactic is counter-insurgency, based on colonial-era experiences in North Africa and Asia.[15] Smith identifies six main trends in the war amongst the people theory:

1)    The ends for which we are fighting are changing – absolute objectives and war to individuals and non-state actors

2)    We fight amongst the people – on the streets and bedroom via media

3)    Our conflicts tend to be timeless

4)    We fight so as to not lose the force rather than fighting using force at any cost to achieve objective

5)    On each occasion new uses are found for old weapons – tools of industrial war are often irrelevant to war amongst people

6)    The sides are mostly non-state [16]

The trends constitute a new form of war. War is no longer a single massive event of military decision that delivers a conclusive political result.[17]

Future War

Colin Gray proposes that in general a great deal of future war is known but the details of such war are not, instead the wars of the future do “not belong to small wars of an irregular kind; alas, it belongs to both regular and irregular warfare”.[18]

Future war envisioned in the urban environment. Image: War on the Rocks.[19]

The Russian vision of future war is further detailed by General Valeriy Gersimov who argues that the lethality of conventional weapons may in fact act as a deterrent similar to nuclear weapons.

The principal features of future conflicts will be the extensive employment of precision weapons and other types of new weapons, including robot technology…In the future, an increase in the capabilities of precision means of destruction, including hypersonic, will make it possible to shift the principal portion of strategic deterrence tasks from the nuclear to the nonnuclear forces”.[20]

General Robert Scales puts forth that technology, robotics and artificial intelligence, give credibility of a battlefield filled with automatons – a dehumanized version of an ideal war.[21] Clausewitz proposes that war is a contest of will and General Paul van Riper echoes this sentiment that war and future war is a contest of wills, not machines.[22]

Another concern for current and especially future warfare is the cost-loss ratio. General Michael Dana references the Battle of Midway in 1942 where the Japanese fleet lost four aircraft carriers in a single day and that would be unsustainable because in the future, a cheaply produced weapons platforms that can be used on land, sea, and air with great power and accuracy can destroy a carrier.[23] The Millennium Challenge wargame in 2002 intended to validate the RAM warfighting theory in the Persian Gulf, but proved its inability to sustain losses. Red team leader van Riper unleashed barrages of missiles, swarms of explosive laden suicide speedboats, launched attacks with commercial vessels, all without the use of radio communications, and destroyed the American fleet within 10 minutes.[24] Another example is the use of a $122 million aircraft to bomb the Taliban at a cost of $40,000 per hour totalling to $500,000 in flight time alone.[25]        

Multi-domain warfare as practiced today is seen as the way forward for future war. For example, a multi-domain operation where

the objective is to disrupt an adversary’s command-and-control network could combine synchronized actions in the electromagnetic, air, land, sea, space, and human domains, which would require a host of entities to work together at a very high level. A cyber-attack on the adversary’s power grid, using access points developed months in advance, might require assets from the National Security Agency.[26]

However, Scales believes that future war lies in the tactical with ground troops. It will require small, independent, perhaps company-sized units led autonomously, but supported with massive robotics. Larger support units would be well removed from the open battlefield. He foresees a checkerboard pattern, reminiscent of the Roman Republican legion’s deployment called the triplex acies, but spread out over a great distance. The multitude of the small units would prevent an enemy from advancing without first having to destroy every single unit that is the eyes and ears of the larger battlegroups in the distance. But such an assault would prove difficult because each unit has a dome-like protection of sensors that theoretically provide early detection and would be able to request support, annihilating the attacking force. He further argues that micro-miniaturization will lead to the power of an Abrams tank reduced to an infantryman’s rifle.[27] He proposes that movement with all arms, or combined arms, on a practical level has changed since 1945 where divisions fought as a basic maneuvering element, and the destruction of Iraqi forces in 1990-91 witnessed the brigade as the driving platform, and perhaps in the near future “by 2025 it might be a company of all arms, possessing the power to employ every dimension of ground combat from maneuver to fires, reconnaissance, logistics, and the control of all external amplifiers.”[28]

Arctic War

It is impossible to predict future war. However, wars fought in 2040 will resemble current wars more closely. The time of bio-engineered, artificial intelligence integrated super soldiers is still well in the far future. The ethical and moral questions about creating new humans for war will be answered by its contemporaries. Another question is how many resources are available for the US? Will the United States still be mired in wars across the globe?

But the Arctic in 2040 will present a different challenge. Its geostrategic location pits the US directly against the Russian. There will be few if any proxies battling it out for their respective masters. A full-scale war is hard to imagine but possible as the competition for resources and access to strategic sea routes grow in importance. A war in the Arctic will be completely different, except for the dying and killing part, then wars in Afghanistan or Iraq for example. Human terrain teams will not be needed. The Arctic has few urban centers, is remote and sparsely populated. As such urban destruction similar to Mosul or Falluja, both in Iraq, will be absent. A war in the high north will see no concrete rubble, or sewers or fights close and personal unless it includes ship boarding and that presents its own challenges. Vast distances, poor infrastructure, difficult terrain, and extreme weather conditions present arduous areas of operations. American planes will not be able to stack for close-air support. Russian aircraft, perhaps inferior, will also challenge American aerial dominance.

How will the military operate under such conditions? The employment of drones seems reasonable as Scales suggests that small but powerful squads or platoons with the latest in lethal hand-held missiles, can independently operate under tough conditions. There certainly will not be any insurgencies to combat and as such decades of refined COIN practices will prove useless.

The war on America’s northern front will probably not be fought on land. The Arctic Ocean is more or less ice free and global warming is continuing to impact the snow and ice cover of the region. In all likelihood most of the fighting will take place in the maritime environment because of the easier access to the ocean and coasts. Ideally then one could employ raids on coastal installations and infrastructures. The seizure and destruction of Gas and Oil Platforms (GOPLAT) primarily led by special forces. These kinds of raids will force the Russians to either focus on key installations and leave other infrastructure open to attack or the military will have to spread across a longer coastline. Submarines will have limited use as they are more difficult to conceal without the protective cover of the sea-ice. Ships of the Russian Northern Fleet and those of the American 2nd Fleet may not directly engage other than in extreme circumstances but could cause tension or friction. Perhaps sabotage activities by SOF teams, military-civilian contractors or indigenous personnel will play a greater part than imagined. It seems difficult to consider convoy wars because a disruption to shipping, a center of gravity, could trigger harsher and more powerful retaliatory responses. But one cannot discount the occasional sinking of some kind of civilian or military naval vessel. Should one force attack a high value target, then perhaps the other will employ a cyber-attack to destroy a valuable infrastructure.  

Russia’s land mass has served it well during times of war. Napoleon’s Grand Army was destroyed by it, and disease, in 1812 during its retreat in the Russian winter. The highly vaunted German war machine was destroyed in 1943 unable to move personnel and material during the harshest of winters. A war in the Arctic however does not seem to warrant large-scale invasions intended to destroy or occupy the Kremlin or Washington DC, but a war along the Arctic’s coastline seems possible. It will not, however, feature invasions repeatedly executed by allied forces during the Second World War.

Fighting in the Arctic requires specialty equipment and training. The tremendous land mass and extreme weather conditions in the region place enormous stress on logistics and weapons systems including aircraft. Twin-engine planes are required in case of engine failure while performing missions over the great and isolated areas. Tanks and armored vehicles will struggle in the weather conditions and the environment on the ground. A lack of transport routes, infrastructure, ever-moving groundslope, and methane gas created craters will cause problems.

Will technology survive under these conditions? How difficult will tele-communications be and the ability to conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) because of the lack of satellites orbiting over the Arctic. Americans will probably be at a disadvantage because Russia has been modernizing for over a decade and a great portion of it is in the Arctic. High technology weapons platforms depend on tele-communications and ISR coverage over the Arctic is extremely limited as are updated maps. And they are crucial for any war.

NATO will be a shadow of its former self as Europe has broken into smaller parts. The Nordic and Baltic states may even remain neutral. Canada more likely than not will have to side with its southern neighbor and perhaps even lose some of its sovereignty especially regarding control of the Northwest Passage. Those are considerations for any future military operation.

Lastly, one should not forget chance in war. Perhaps a war will be triggered or an attack averted by an accident. John Lewis Gaddis reminds us that at the height of the Cold War with nuclear Armageddon on the horizon cooler heads prevailed even when a nuclear armed aircraft was scrambled because of a breach of security at a base by a saboteur. The saboteur causing the breach was a “lone inquisitive bear”.[29]

Conclusion

Climate change is rapidly transforming the world and turning the Arctic into the strategic fulcrum of a future war between near-peer competitors Russia and the United States. Whereas in previous decades the Arctic was an inaccessible, hostile region, providing a strategic deterrent during the Cold War, global warming has opened up a new front, with potentially shorter distances for missile attacks between the great powers. Climate change and population growth with its unrestrained consumption, is depleting global resources eliciting new security threats. But global warming promises a New Eden in the Arctic, a paradise to exploit. American strategy is first and foremost the enforcement of its capitalist ideology, maintaining its standing as the leader of the international order to further drive globalization. The Arctic represents a new frontier for resource exploitation and commerce to offset potential losses elsewhere. Russian strategy rests on the presumption of an international competition for the world’s resources in an environment created by the US that favors it and its allies to the detriment of the Russian Federation. Since Russia is the largest Arctic stakeholder it seeks to protect what it considers its rights and sovereignty. Modernization of Russian infrastructure and the military, along with an aggressive posture in eastern Europe and Syria, has raised American and NATO suspicions. Ill-defined boundaries between the Arctic nations, increased global tensions between a resurgent, nationalist and autocratic Russia with an equally nationalist, unilateral, America-first government, can only lead to a future war in the Arctic.

[1] Fairhall (2010) pp.197-203

[2] "World’s Consumption of Materials Hits Record 100bn Tonnes a Year." The Guardian, 22 January 2020

[3] Wallace-Wells (2019) p. 92 and Herring (2012) p. 2

[4] National Intelligence Council Report (2013) p. iii

[5] National Intelligence Council Report (2013) p. i

[6] Nesbit (2018) pp. 24-5

[7] National Intelligence Council Report (2013)

[8] Spratt (2019)

[9] Buyck (2017)

[10] Clausewitz (1943) 1.2, 1.9, 1.24

[11] Krulak (1999)

[12] Freedman (2017) p.223

[13] Chivvis (2017) pp.2-4

[14] Smith (2005) p.267

[15] Kilcullen (2010) p.ix

[16] Smith (2005) p. 17

[17] Smith (2005) p. 17

[18] Gray (2008) p. 17, 23

[19] Scales (2019) 

[20] Gerasimov (2019) p. 133

[21] Freedman (2017) p. xxi

[22] Scales (2000) p.38

[23] Dana (2019)

[24] Zenko (2015)

[25] Cuomo (2018)

[26] Venable (2019)

[27] Scales (2019)

[28] Scales (2018)

[29] Gaddis (1998) p. 273 

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