Flashpoint Arctic:How climate change will compel a future war between the United States and Russia Part 3
The Russian Federation
The USA prefers to follow the rule of the strongest and not by the international law. They are convinced that they have been chosen and they are exceptional, that they are allowed to shape the destiny of the world, that it is only them that can be right. They act as they please. Here and there they use force against sovereign states, set up coalitions in accordance with the principle: who is not with us is against us.
Vladimir Putin 2014[1]
The Soviet Union emerged as a superpower in 1945 and became the ideological foe to the United States. But following the Cold War (1945-89) in 1991 the USSR collapsed and the Russian Federation emerged as other former republics transitioned to independence. Vladimir Putin became head of state in 1999, and has extended his power until 2036 with a series of constitutional changes.[2] Russia is a centralized, authoritarian government where corruption is endemic. Russia has turned toward nationalism and tradition.
The United States is Russia’s greatest threat. This is rooted in Russia’s disillusionment with the West after a failed attempt to establish closer ties with NATO after the dissolution of the Soviet Union when Russia made large-scale concessions, withdrew its military, and handed over its bases to Eastern European countries. NATO used this as an opportunity to expand aggressively up to the Russian border. This presented a strategic shift as NATO can now strike faster and deeper into Russia avoiding its countermeasures by reducing response times.[3] Russian policymakers seek to renew their former military strength because of their own perceived vulnerabilities.[4]
The Russian Federation has sought to rebuild its Soviet-era Cold War Bastion defense strategy aimed to ensure the survival of strategic ballistic missile submarines – as well as the related infrastructure – in their enclosed and well-defended maritime areas, or “bastions”. In addition to relying on geographical cover (e.g. the ice sheet), this is achieved by establishing a layered defence system with various capabilities, such as sensors, mines, coastal and surface-to-air missiles (SAM), as well as maritime and air capabilities.[5]
Military campaigns in Chechnya, Georgia and the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, the Ukraine itself have led to greater tensions with the United States. Combat operations in Syria, intended to secure its strategic ally and to defeat Islamic insurgents that could pose a threat to Russian domestic security, have led an all-time low in international relations. Moscow’s meddling in the 2016 US presidential election further aggravated the relationship.[6]
Western sanctions have led to an even greater distrust by reducing international energy partnerships in the Arctic and the cancellation of international military cooperation and exercises. Russia sees NATO as openly hostile because it has increased personnel, maneuvers and surveillance. By 2014 NATO increased its activity in the Arctic by 80 percent.[7]NATO-plans include the creation of a rapid response force of 30,000 troops with six command centers in the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, further encircling the Russian Federation.[8] NATO support agreements have been signed with Finland and Sweden who are members of the Arctic Council.[9] In the Arctic, trade and traffic on the NSR have dropped. The Russian General Staff believes that these actions demonstrate American efforts to “turn NATO into an instrument designed to contain Russia and ensure US global dominance”.[10]
Russia has an estimated 26 to 40 bases in nine countries, most of which are former Soviet Republics, as well as having installations in Syria and Vietnam, in comparison to 800 American bases world-wide.[11] To off-set NATO, Russia formed the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) with less than a dozen former Soviet republics as members but lacks the strength of the former Warsaw Pact. It also has defense related relationships throughout the world but not to the degree as the former Soviet Union’s patron-client relationships. Russia seeks a strategic partnership with China since Moscow and Beijing desire to off-set America’s global power.
Russia funds its modernization and militarization efforts by being one of the world’s leading energy producers and exporters. Its GDP based on 2017 estimates are $4.016 trillion, a quarter of America’s. Russian exports are $353 billion and its principal economic partners are China 10.9%, Netherlands 10%, Germany 7.1%, Belarus 5.1%, and Turkey 4.9%.[12] Its oil exports rose from 59 percent in 2017 to 65 percent in 2018.[13]
The Effects of Climate Change
Russia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change because of its vast Arctic regions. Much of its infrastructure is built on top of permafrost. Floods and wildfires in the Russian Federation have been some of the worst on the planet. In 2010, the resultant smoke from massive forest fires killed tens of thousands of Russians. Lake Baikal, the largest and deepest lake in the world, has suffered diminished water inflow because of a rise in the lake’s temperature.[14]
President Putin acknowledges climate change but does not attribute it to human activity. Moscow understands that an increase in hydrocarbon production presents new risks and additional global warming.[15] Even though the Russian Federation acknowledges climate change, it welcomes what it considers positive effects on its agriculture and weather.[16] In 2017, “86% of Russians have noted serious changes in climate and 51% believe that global warming is a severe problem that should be addressed immediately. At the same time, 27% of Russians expect positive impacts”.[17]
But as global warming increases there will be less demand on energy because of temperature increases in typically frigid northern areas. In certain parts of Russia there will be an increase in water and hydroelectric energy, but southern parts will suffer water shortages and droughts. New agricultural lands may emerge in previously inhospitable regions. Climate change will result in new threats such as migrants, or ecological refugees, from the Caucasus, Central Asia and northeastern China, and may even create border tensions or clashes.[18]
By 2030, climate change in the Russian Federation will result in a projected loss of 1-2% of GDP per year with an estimated damage to reach $4.3 billion per year. The fight against climate change means reducing hydrocarbon fuels but that is the pillar of the Russian economy.[19] “In an effort to offset some of these negative outcomes, Russia has set a goal to reduce emissions by 25%-30% below 1990-levels by the year 2030”.[20]
Russia and the Arctic
The Russian Arctic is an immense territory and makes it the largest Arctic nation. Its territories include the Murmansk Region and the Nenets, Yamal-Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous Okrugs; the northern Arkhangelsk Region, the Komi Republic, Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia); and the archipelagoes and islands in the Russian portion of the Arctic Ocean.[21] The Russian Federation is a member of the Arctic Council and a signatory to UNLCOS. The priorities in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) are to develop its infrastructure and natural resources.[22] Russia official position is to have good relations with its neighbors to promote economic, scientific, and cultural cooperation in the Arctic, and, to promote the efficient use of the Northern Sea Route for international shipping under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation.[23] There is an expected increase in shipping lane traffic by 2025 from the current 20 million metric tons to 80 million metric tons.[24]
The Arctic is considered a depoliticized zone but climate change is opening new areas for resource extraction while simultaneously creating a new front with the Americans. The Arctic is vital to Russia’s international energy economy unlike the United States’ which is not dependent on it and therefore, according to analysis by Kathrin Keil, will not lead to a major inter-state war.[25] In the event that any conflict about the Arctic’s resources should occur, it will most likely concern complicated business relationships between the Russian state and foreign oil and gas companies wanting to get a share of Russia’s vast hydrocarbon base to satisfy especially high European demand… On the one hand, [Russia] aims to protect its resources by declaring them strategic and thus strongly limiting non-Russian involvement in any development activities. On the other hand, Russia’s economy is highly dependent on the continued expansion of its oil and gas production, which will be impossible to achieve in the future without foreign expertise and capital.[26]
Nonetheless, climate change will tip the scales toward resource competition and confrontation.
Military Modernization Program
Former Soviet military installations and equipment were neglected as the country tried to recover from its economic and political chaos.[27] Russian armed forces needed to meet emerging threats. “While the presence of a robust nuclear deterrent dissuaded potential aggressors from directly attacking the Russian Federation, it was not flexible enough for Moscow to use in small, local conflicts such as Georgia or as a tool of power projection”.[28] In the Arctic, the program intended to make the forces better trained, equipped and compact. The modernization, called the New Look Program, was for both conventional and nuclear forces and started in earnest with the State Rearmament Program from 2007-15.[29] The Strategic Armament Program (SAP) called for spending $285 billion from 2011 through 2020. The 2017 budget was $42 billion, a 30% real cut in defense spending from 2016 and is the lowest budget for national defense since 2013.[30]
Strategy
Today, the potential of strategic nuclear forces is maintained at a level that guarantees, under any conditions of the situation, that unacceptable damage will be done to an aggressor. The strategic nuclear forces are developing through the establishment of modern strategic missile systems with increased ability to overcome the enemy’s missile defense and the creation of fundamentally new combat equipment, including hypersonic, highly mobile possible to shift the principal portion of strategic deterrence tasks from the nuclear to the nonnuclear forces.[31]
General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov 2018
As the United States reaped the benefits of a Cold War victory with wealth creation through globalization, Russia had to endure a humiliating withdrawal from superpower status. According to Moscow the international order favors the United States at the expense of the Russian Federation. Therefore, a robust military backing diplomacy ensures that Russian interests are not ignored. Moscow believes the United States is intent on undermining Russia at home and abroad.[32] The Arctic is a major part of Russian strategy and includes a warfighting strategy that uses indirect action and asymmetric responses, including using technical and psychological operations to disrupt technical systems, influence public opinion, and to “erode the opponent’s resolve.” [33] The modernization of its forces, including precision-guided weapons, allows it to “shape the outcome of war along the entire spectrum of modern conflict”.[34]
The Russian military today is better prepared to participate in complex military operations than a decade ago, especially in joint operations, strategic mobility and rapid deployments. It is a smaller, mobile force, capable of conducting wars in every aspect from indirect action and asymmetric warfare. “Russia’s ability to limit or deny access and control various parts of the Arctic has increased accordingly,”[35]
Arctic Strategy
The Soviet Union’s military was primarily employed as a coercive force in its global fight against capitalist America.[36] Today, its forces serve a variety of tasks for the Russian Federation in the Arctic including enforcing sovereignty of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and continental shelf claims. Additional tasks include the prevention of illegal immigration, thwarting potential terrorist attacks against vital infrastructure, protecting nuclear materials and weapons, cooperating in civil-military matters relating to search and rescue operations, navigational security, addressing environmental challenges, as well as maritime and aerial patrolling. Lastly, it supports scientific explorations in the Arctic.[37]
As a response to NATO’s increased presence in the Arctic Russia has strengthened key installations. Its strategic nuclear forces are paramount to its defense while regional air defenses and operations have been modernized. Of greatest importance is maintenance of its sovereignty over its current self-declared Arctic holdings as the vast resources in the Russian Arctic zone are vital to its economy. “Since the early 2000s, the Russian political and military leadership has systematically argued that there will be an acute shortage of energy resources worldwide, which may lead to a conflict, and that the West, led by the United States, may attempt to seize Russia’s oil and gas”.[38] Climate change also impacts strategy as the melting ice sheets now expose to satellites ,nuclear submarines previously hidden, while more ice-free months of sea routes increase maritime activities, both legal and otherwise.
The Russian Federation does not have a single publicly-available strategy paper on the Arctic but are based on two key documents, the Foundations of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic to 2020 and Beyond (2008) and Strategy for the Development of the AZRF (2013).[39] They focus on climate change mitigation, developing the Arctic into a strategic resource base, sustainable development, and continuing the successful cooperative efforts for peace and stability in the Arctic region.
The 2015 maritime doctrine focused on naval and civilian matters in the North Atlantic and Arctic because of NATO movements. A nuclear icebreaker fleet is to be modernized and functional by 2020 while Russia’s fleet is being upgraded. 2015 also saw a new national security strategy that references three Arctic issues such as an increase in international competition for natural resources of the oceans, a transportation junction that needs development for economic security, and international cooperation.[40]
The 2016 Russian Foreign Policy Concept demonstrated the renewed interest in the use of force in international relations due to the increase in tensions. It also seeks to finalize boundary issues on land and sea, including the Arctic continental shelf claims.[41] Russia seeks to keep the Arctic out of the current international tensions, preventing any potential conflict in the region. The 2016 paper stresses the importance of the Arctic Council.
The Arctic’s Kola Peninsula, near Norway, is Russia’s most vital base of military operations. Its location is close to perceived US and NATO threats. Nearly two-thirds of the Russian nuclear strategic submarine fleet is stationed there. It is a key strategic point for naval and air operations. Furthermore, the Arctic is vital for Russian security concerns in terms of early warning systems and air defense operations in case of American offensive operations over the North Pole.[42]
Russian concerns that with the loss of sea ice the United States will permanently deploy nuclear submarines and sea-based ballistic missile defenses in the Arctic Ocean. This creates the ability to intercept Russian missiles while potentially allowing America a first strike. Russian strategy therefore demands a regular modernization of its forces and in 2013 sped up the creation of the Arctic Group of Forces, the modernization of the Northern Fleet, and the reopening of old Soviet air and naval bases along the Northern Sea Route.[43]
The entire coastline from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic Ocean is a single military theatre to confront the strategic forces of the United States. In the Arctic conventional forces protect its economic interests and borders. The Russian Arctic is broken into zones. The Western sector confronts Norwegian NATO forces, while the conventional part of the Northern Fleet protects the Barents Sea while simultaneously acting as auxiliary support for the strategic nuclear forces. The NSR and its Arctic Ocean’s coastline is protected by the Northern Fleet and border guard units. A concern is that the American Pacific Fleet operates in the strategic point of the Bering Sea, the Bering Strait and the access to the Chukchi Sea, that controls the northern access to the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait situated between North America and Russia.[44] But according to Moscow “Russia’s Arctic policies focus mainly on non-military challenges and underline the importance of cooperation among all Arctic states in dealing with the region’s issues”.[45]
The Arctic and the NSR are crucial for its naval strategy and serve as a base for its Northern Fleet’s military forces.[46] The Russian Federation has expanded its Arctic force structure. Its military build-up is said to be defensive but it does test its American and Canadian neighbors with military overflights, challenging boundaries, and demonstrating capabilities.[47] Russian policy “seeks consistent control over foreign military activity in the Russian Arctic, and ensured access for Russian armed forces, particularly the Northern Fleet”.[48] Part of the Russian Federation’s strategy is to have access to the Northern Sea Route, which it shares with Norway, a gateway to the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean for its military and commercial enterprises. Global warming will further open this sea passage to increased maritime activity and requires conventional force protection. The strategic gateway is important since “Russia’s naval forces are separated between four theaters of operations – the Pacific, the Arctic-Atlantic, the Baltic and the Black Sea”.[49] As a result of climate change, Russia will be able to freely move its warships between its main bases along the Northern Sea Route. But “with the increased mobility, the military units can be transferred rapidly to support Russia military operations in other regions”.[50]
Changing Roles of Military Power in the Arctic
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States pursued a containment strategy and the Arctic was part of it. In the post-Cold War era warfare metamorphized from conventional fighting to various sub-sectors of warfighting. Part of the transformation was the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) which became the new doctrine. No longer was it necessary to carpet bomb centers of gravity and to seize enemy terrain. Strategies transformed, and from the Russian perception wars are now being fought for regime change or are fought under the human rights banner of humanitarian interventions and a responsibility to protect.[51] As such non-traditional tasks include fighting terrorists or pirates or criminal elements, to “policing conflict zone, protecting a country’s economic interests, conducting SAR operations, and coping with natural and man-made catastrophes”.[52]
The Arctic presents the opportunities for international cooperation to extract resources but it also ushers in new security challenges. Border and sovereignty insecurities and international competition can contribute to disharmony. The Russian Federation wants to protect its sovereignty over its Arctic economic zone and Russian armed forces have new tasks. These include protecting the resources, fighting poaching, especially fishing in the Arctic Ocean, and anti-smuggling operations.
Russia sees challenges to its sovereignty in its Arctic holdings in the unauthorized presence of foreign vessels along with illegal migration, drug smuggling, and poaching. In particular, illegal commercial fishing causes tensions. Russian fishing in the Barents Sea sees clashes with Norway which had claimed a 200-mile economic zone around Spitsbergen and as such has arrested Russian fishermen. Russia does not recognize the zone. In 2004, the Russian Northern Fleet navy patrolled the area much to the displeasure of Norway who view this as “Russian imperial ambitions and of Moscow’s unwillingness to cooperate with Oslo to settle maritime and economic disputes”.[53] In order to address the issues of smuggling, overfishing, and poaching, the Arctic Coast Guard Forum was established in 2015. It is another forum to address issues but is not bound to any agreements. Canada, Denmark, Finland, Island, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States are members.
Another emerging security threat is illegal migration from Middle Eastern refugees who travel through Russian Arctic routes to Finland and Norway. This has caused Norway to build a fence at its border.[54] Finnish and Norwegian experts believe this illegal migration to be part of Russian hybrid.[55] Environmental refugees, especially along Russia’s southern borders, may create greater instability and ethnic clashes.[56]
International terrorism includes the threat of nuclear terrorism. Perceived threats to oil platforms and infrastructure have led to an increase in border protection. Nuclear waste materials and nuclear power plants are potential targets for such attacks. “More than 200 decommissioned nuclear reactors from submarines and icebreakers from the Soviet period are stored on the Kola Peninsula”.[57] In 2016, Russia began to reduce nuclear waste from the Murmansk region of approximately 22,000 containers of spent fuel from nuclear submarines and icebreakers, and 3400 cubic metres of liquid radioactive waste which collectively is as radioactive as 5000 Hiroshima bombs.[58]
Russia’s military modernization is of dual-use functionality. The military-civilian build-up in the Arctic demonstrates Russia’s status as a global power with world-class military capabilities. Russia deploys long-range aviation and conducts strategic maritime operations.[59] It also created a Joint Strategic Command (OSK) and an OSK for the Arctic to improve its capabilities in the NSR.[60] The creation of two special Arctic brigades, something the Soviets never had, and plans for a third in addition to special Arctic coastal defense divisions seems “a bit provocative… [as] it could trigger an arms race”. [61] “But in an era when a slow-motion battle for the Arctic's energy reserves is unfolding, Russia is creating a permanent and nimble conventional military presence with different and sometimes superior capabilities”.[62]
[1] “Russia Military Power 2017.” Defense Intelligence Agency
[2] “Putin backs proposal allowing him to remain in power in Russia beyond 2024.” The Guardian, 10 March 2020
[3] Gorenburg (2015) p.1
[4] Chrastansky (2011)
[5] Mikkola (2019) p.4
[6] "Russia’s Vladimir Putin Outlines Ambitious Arctic Expansion Program." Los Angeles Times, 9 April 2019
[7] Gorenburg (2015) p.3
[8] Gorenburg (2015) p.2
[9] Gorenburg (2015) p.2
[10] Gorenburg (2015) p.3
[11] "The US has Military Bases in 80 Countries. all of them must Close." The Nation, Ja24 January 2018 and "List of Russian Military Bases Abroad." Wikipedia
[12] “The World Factbook: Russia.” CIA
[13] "Russia Economic Report." The World Bank, 4 December 2019
[14] "The Effects of Climate Change in Russia." The US Russia Foundation, 30 November 2018
[16] "Russia Announces Plan to ‘use the Advantages’ of Climate Change." The Guardian, 5 January 2020
[17] "The Effects of Climate Change in Russia." The US Russia Foundation, 30 November 2018
[18] “Russia: Impact of Climate Change to 2030 2009.” National Intelligence Council, April 2009
[20] "The Effects of Climate Change in Russia." The US Russia Foundation, 30 November 2018
[21] "The Russian Federation." The Arctic Council
[22] "The Russian Federation." The Arctic Council
[23] "Russia’s Vladimir Putin Outlines Ambitious Arctic Expansion Program." Los Angeles Times, 9 April 2019
[24] "Russia’s Vladimir Putin Outlines Ambitious Arctic Expansion Program." Los Angeles Times, 9 April 2019
[25] Keil (2014) p. 178
[26] Keil (2014) p.178
[27] “Russia Military Power 2017.” Defense Intelligence Agency
[28] “Russia Military Power 2017.” Defense Intelligence Agency
[29] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.11
[30] “Russia Military Power 2017.” Defense Intelligence Agency
[31] Gerasimov (2019) p.136
[32] “Russia Military Power 2017.” Defense Intelligence Agency
[33] “Russia Military Power 2017.” Defense Intelligence Agency
[34] “Russia Military Power 2017.” Defense Intelligence Agency
[36] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.1
[37] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p. 1
[38] Parker (2017)
[39] Wezeman (2016) p.13
[40] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.5
[41] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.5
[42] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.3
[43] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p. 3
[44] “World Factbook: Arctic Ocean.” CIA
[46] Parker (2017) and Keil (2014)
[51] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.6
[52] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.7
[53] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.8
[54] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.9
[55] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.9
[56] “Russia: Impact of Climate Change to 2030.” National Intelligence Council, 2009
[57] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.9
[58] Sergunin and Konyshev (2017) p.10
[59] “Russia Military Power 2017.” Defense Intelligence Agency
[60] “Russia: Impact of Climate Change to 2030.” National Intelligence Council, 2009, p.27
[62] "Putin's Russia in Biggest Arctic Military Push since Soviet Fall." Reuters, 30 January 2017